COVID vaccine strategy - A sure recepie for failure

 Let me cut short the pleasantries not so required introductions and jump straight to point. COVID-19 had its dream run in 2020 and the second wave in 2021 has made its 2020 run pale in comparison.

India has a population of 135 cr out of which we need to vaccinate around 60-70% to ensure that the impact of the dreaded pandemic is subdued. Now that the vaccines are not tested or invented for children below 18 who constitute 40% of our population[censusofindia], we are left with little choice but to inoculate the entire eligible population.

This number at official figures would be in tune of 80 Cr. at 2 vaccines per person, we are looking at 160cr or 1.6billion doses of vaccine. Add wastage at 5% or less to the number we are looking at around 170 cr or 1.7 billion doses. But where are so many doses?

There is a parallel killer in the town. That killer is poverty. Everytime, we have a lockdown there is a bigger risk of people losing livelihood. The result is the ability of people to sustain themselves is going down and so is government's capacity to support due to dip in economic activities and hence the government finances.

So what is the way out? For sure, as we talk, there is only three tools at hand. 

• First is social distancing. Pretty workable for at least a section of society whose work does not get severely impacted by working from home, but then we can not stop everyone from venturing out for an elongated period of time.
• Second is mass immunization. which looks like a distant dream given the capacity to produce is only in range of 10-15 cr or 100-150 million doses[covishield][covaxin], that will take a good year and a half to reach the target.
• Third is of course to trust on immunity. This is the route that is not expected from any civil government.

So, whats the way out? if we go around randomly vaccinating people, there would always be crisis. We can not ask the vaccine manufacturers to increase their capacities as it is going to be waste after the targets are reached and also that additional capacities can not be created out of no where and in no time. Its going to take a good amount of time to create the capacity.

In the interim following approach could be adopted: 

• Clearly declare that the schools and colleges are not going to be in offline mode. That will take out a good population from our list of people who need to be vaccinated immediately.
• A good 12 cr are already vaccinated- frontline warriors etc.
• Use 80-20 rule. Distribute 20 percent vaccines on demand basis to the states for their emergency inoculation needs. Put lockdown on a few districts and allow only 50 percent workforce to show at office. Deploy remaining 80 percent vaccines to these comin to office working population and their families. 
• If an establishment wants to start early, they should be proactive and supportive. Also, they would clearly identify people who would get vaccine and report to work.
• The viral load in these districts would go sufficiently down and they could support the neighboring districts till their turn comes.
• The work will start and hence the impact on economy would be moderated. Its worthwhile to remember that there is nothing worse than being poor, hungry and sick.

To cut the long story short, rather than targeting everyone with a small portion and letting everyone suffer equally, the strategy could be to isolate and inoculate for faster recovery of the society and economy from this pandemic.